Posted by: cfigueira | October 8, 2010

Mortgage Industry News

Key Economic News:

Payroll day, wholesale inventories, and one Fed speech…

8:30 Employment report for Aug…deceleration in privaye-sector hiring? Consumer perceptions about job availability have worsened, and the ADP employment report showed an outright loss, which when corrected for its normal tendency to understate suggest a much smaller increase than was reported in official data last month. The continuing unwinding of temporary Census jobs should result in another setback for total nonfarm payrolls. This report will also contain a preliminary estimate of the benckmark revision to be implemented early next year, our best guess is that BLS will signal that a mall upward revision is likely for the level of payrolls as of March 2010.
On total payrolls, median forecast (of 87): -5k, ranging from -75k to +75k; last -54k.
On private-sector payrolls, median forecast (of 60): +75k, ranging from flat to +110k; last +67k.

We and others look for an up-tick in the unemployment rate in the wake of the loss of Census jobs.
Median forecast (of 83): 9.7%, ranging from 9.6% to 9.8%; last 9.5%.

We continue to look for deceleration in wage inflation on a trend basis as the unemployment rate hovers just under 10% and the broadest measure of underemployment remains in the mid teens.
Median forecast (of 57): +0.2%, ranging from flat to +0.3%; last +0.3%.

10:00: Wholesale inventories for Aug…continued increases? These inventories are goods that are essentially in transit from factories or from the docks to final destinations such as retail outlets and are therefore difficult to forecast. They rose sharply in July, with unusually large gains in apparel and raw materials suggesting that the import surge in Q2 might have been a factor. Economists expect a return to the more moderate pace of earlier months.
Median forecast (of 35): +0.5%, ranging from +0.2% to +0.8%; last +1.3%.

14:25: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks on financial regulation…he will participate in a panel discussing “Next Steps in International Financial Regulation” at a conference in Washington, DC.

Advice:

Mixed report, softer under the surface
A mixed report, a bit weaker than surface statistics suggest as local government employment suffers significant losses, the broadest measure of underemployment rises due to more part-time work, and data on hours worked stagnation.

Key Numbers:
Nonfarm payrolls -95k in Sept vs. median forecast -5k.
Private payrolls +64k in Sept vs. median forecast +75k.
Unemployment rate 9.6% in Sept vs. median forecast 9.7%.
Average hourly earnings flat in Sept (mom, +1.7% yoy) vs. median forecast +0.2%.

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