Posted by: cfigueira | September 30, 2010

Mortgage News

Key Economic News:

Key releases on jobless claims and industrial activity give way to Chairman Bernanke and othe rfinancial regulators at mid-morning…

8:30: Unemployment insurance claims…back in the range. Initial claims have moved up and down over the past few weeks, but from 30,000 feet one broad theme is clear-there has been no significant trend one way or the other in 2010. Continuing claims have edged down over the same period, but the trend in total recipients is much less clear after adjusting for the people who have lost eligibility for all programs. For initial and continuing claims, analysts this week expect more of the same. The continuing figure applies to the payroll survey week, but the emergency/extended programs have another week to go before hitting point.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 47): 460k, ranging from 450k to 475k; last 465k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (0f 8): 4.473 million, ranging from 4.45mm t 4.5mm; last 4.489mm.

8:30: GDP ofr Q2 (second estimate)…not much change. The third cut to GDP growth and its components rarely produces much change from the second-round estimates, though risks tilt to the downside given large revisions to construction spending in May aand June. The GDP price index is unlikely to move significantly. The core PCE index will incorporate updated information on bank service charges, but nobody knows which way this would likely push the results.
On GDP, median forecast (of 81): +1 .6%, ranging from +1.3% to +2.2%; last (Q2 second est) +1.6%.
On the GDP price index, median forecast (of 39): +1.9%, ranging from +1.7% to 2.0%; last +1.9%.
On the PCE core index,median forecast (of 16): +1.1%, ranging from +1.1% to +1.1%; last +1.1%.

9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for Sept…further moderation? This index has run stronger than the national ISM manufacturing index in recent months, presumably due to the larger weight that auto-related production has in the region. Most economists expect it to come down a bit further.
Median forecast (of 57): 55.5, ranging from 53.6 to 58.3; last 56.7.

10:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on implementation of rhe Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act…before the Senate Banking Committee. He will be joined by FDIC Chair Sheila Bar, SEC Chair Mary Schapiro, and CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler.

14:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to an educators’ town hall…we have no information about the topic.

16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet…The size of the Fed’s balance sheet remains around $2.3 trillion as repayments of principal on agency and MBS is now being reinvested into US Treasuries. This shift will show up slowly over time, as the amounts per week are in the $3-$4bn neighborhood.

18:00: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto to speak at the Women’s Economic Round Table on Vital Issues Confronting the New Congress…In New York City. Ms. Pianalto is a voting member of the FOMC this year.


Claims Improve; GDP Revision Small
Initial and continuing claims both fall slighly more than expected. Claims for extended benefits contiune thier decline. Revisions to GDP data small, with more consumption and inventory accumulation, less construction and government spending, and an even deeper trade drag than previously reported. Implications for third-quarter growth unclear.

Key Numbers:
Initial claims -16k to 453k in week ended Sept 25 vs. median forecast 460k.
Continuing claims -83k to 4.457 million in week ended Sept 18 vs. median forecast 4.473 million.
Real GDP revised up 0.1pt to +1.7% in Q2 (qoq, annualized, +3.0% yoy) vs. median forecast +1.6%.
GDP price index unrevised at +1.9% in Q2 (qoq, annualized, +0.8% yoy) vs. median forecast +1.9%.
PCE core price index revised down 0.1pt to +1.0% in Q2 (qoq, annualized, +1.4% yoy) vs. median forecast +1.1%.

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